Approaches already made to former TRT heavies; wife may be key to such hopes
In the sixth of a series of articles marking the first month since the September 19 coup, The Nation focuses on what ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been doing and will do in order to return to power.
While deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has yet to return home there is much speculation about what he plans for himself and the country.
All leading political gurus believe he is planning to "fight to death".
As things stand, Thaksin may not be able to return home until the end of next year. His struggle to cling to power started on September 19, when the then Council for Democratic Reform secretly moved out tanks to take over strategic areas in the capital.
Thaksin fought from across the globe by broadcasting three orders: a State of Emergency; an order to dismiss Army Chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin; and before he could finish reading it, an order to appoint General Ruengroj Mahasaranond in place of Sonthi - but his voice was cut off in mid-sentence.
After the CDR had taken over, Thaksin did not stop fighting. He wanted to give a speech at the United Nations, to seek justice for being overthrown. His bid to go ahead with the address was ended by an important US figure in Thailand. The Thai ambassador to the UN confirmed before the meeting of world leaders that Thaksin had become a "former prime minister".
Thaksin's attempts did not stop there. He and his chief policy adviser Pansak Vinyarat lobbied foreign countries to boycott the coup leaders and released reports that Thaksin had established a government-in-exile.
Although Thaksin has resigned as leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party, the move was "to withdraw to regain control". One tactic is to avoid a criminal offence in case the Constitution Tribunal dissolves the party, as a criminal offence cannot be prosecuted retroactively.
Another reason Thaksin must let his political heirs take over the party - be it Sudarat, Prommin Lertsuridej, Pongthep Thepkanchana or Chaturon Chaisang - is the party needs a new face to change its image.
Chaturon agreed to accept the leadership on the condition that he has freedom to build the party with a democratic ideology.
Thaksin may care little about that - his hands are likely to be full trying to protect his assets from being impounded by the Asset Examination Committee. Political analysts believe Thaksin is happy to use Chaturon to ride over the present crisis.
He has reportedly mobilised at least 300 party members in each province to do "underground" work. They distributed a cartoon book that tells of Thaksin's life to seek sympathy from the grassroots. He is also trying his best to ensure the Thai public does not lose interest in him.
If the Thai Rak Thai Party is dissolved, that would not mean Thaksin's dream to return to power would end. He has been seeking a way to survive. Approaches have been made to politicians such as Somsak Thepsuthin, who led his faction to quit Thai Rak Thai to establish a new party.
The new party includes former "heavies" members such as Suriya Jungrungreangkit, Pinij Charu-sombat, Somkid Chatusripitak, all of whom had met before the coup to discuss forming a new party when the Thai Rak Thai was looking shaky.
At this juncture, the attempt to establish this party is seen as an opportunistic move that could either serve the interests of the Council for National Security (CNS) or, be a nominee party for Thaksin to stage a comeback.
The group has sought financial backing from Khunying Pojaman Shinwatra but the plan was scrapped after the move was leaked to the media.
But Pojaman may finally be forced to enter politics because Thaksin is likely to be banned from politics in the long term over allegations of corruption and causing social division.
Finally the charge that may prevent his return to politics forever is that he posed a threat to the monarchy.
Thaksin needs to push his political heir into power and wait for the day he can regain his assets, and take revenge on those who brought him down.
This scenario is not unimaginable, if the CNS is unable to uproot Thaksin's powerbase because of traitors in the CNS.
